2018 (plus 2017 and 2016) NBA Draft Board

June 9, 2018
Updated: June 15, 2018
Post-draft list: June 23, 2018

Introduction

Click here for 2017 rankings, and click here for 2016 rankings.

I'm mostly posting this to keep myself accountable and to look back on in future years. These rankings are heavily based on personal preference for certain player archetypes and my own basketball philiosophies. I especially like 3-and-D players (some of my favorite players are the rare 3-and-D point guard, like George Hill or Patrick Beverley) and lob catching/rim protecting bigs. I value smart decision makers, decisive ball movers, smart defenders, and players who seek out smart shots (dunks/layups, corner 3s, and, of course, free throws). Finally, I believe that the most talented players are often not the most important towards winning games; what is most impressive is not what is most valuable. Therefore, players whose skillset revolves around shooting contested midrange jump shots, chasing blocks, scoring out of the post, or, to a lesser degree, personal shot creation are often valued too highly, while less talented offensive players who are strong individual and team defenders are frequently undervalued by fans and front offices alike.

Most of my draft thoughts are heavily influenced by the scouting and analysis of others, primarily Dean Demakis, Evan Zamir, Jesse Fischer, the writers at The Stepien, Kevin Pelton, and The Dime Drop. I do not watch a lot of NCAA basketball, nor do I think I am a talented scout by the eye-test, so my personal opinions are derived mostly via interpreting the scouting reports from better analysts/talent evaluators, placing weight on traits I find valuable, and looking at statistical performances. Finally, I placed a lot higher weight on grouping players into tiers rather than worrying about their ordinal rank within the tier. If you're like me and more comfortable with baseball's process of grouping by Future Value rather than worrying about individual rankings, the Future Value grades on each tier would be as follows: Tier 1 would be the 65s, Tier 2 would be 60s, Tier 3 would be 55s, Tier 4 would be 50s (average starters), Tier 5 would be 45s, and the honorable mentions would be 40s.

There are some terms I frequently use that aren't well defined, so I'll do my best to define them here. I often use the term ape index (a term borrowed from rock climbing) when discussing a player's length and it measured simply as wingspan minus height. A player's toolkit is a combination of their physique, athleticism, fluidity, and coordination; essentially the physical abilities that are more difficult to teach. I define skill as a combination of ball handling and shooting ability. For example, LeBron James is not an incredibly skilled player; he is an above average shooter and ball handler, but those are likely the parts of his game that are weakest. He is merely an athletic freak in a prototype body that is (mostly) immune to injury who just happens to be a basketball genius on both ends of the court. On the other hand, a player like Kyrie Irving may be the most skilled player in the league. He is a 99th percentile ball handler and a terrific shooter and those are easily his strongest parts to his game. However, skill is not equal to value, as there are many more outside attributes that go into making a valuable player, as shown by nobody mistaking Irving for being a better player than James. Possibly the most important outside attribute is basketball IQ. Offensively, I define this as a combination of a player's passing vision, decision making with the ball, timing and positioning off the ball, and creativity (e.g., seeking out and drawing contact for fouls, using fakes and misdirections to open passing lanes, setting unusal screens that better open the floor, etc.). On the defensive end, the main skills I try and identify are choosing the right shots to contest (a counter-example would be a player like Hassan Whiteside, who frequently leaves his man to chase blocks) boxing out to ensure his team gets a rebound as opposed to fighting for a rebound of their own (e.g. Robin Lopez, whose teams rebound better with him on the floor, despite him not gathering many rebounds of his own), being engaged in off-ball defense and knowing when/where to switch (really most of the players on the current Celtics, but Marcus Smart is especially proficient), and I have a personal attaction to players who know when to jab in a swipe for a steal as an off-ball defender (Andre Iguodala and Lonzo Ball are both excellent at quickly swiping at the ball while staying engaged with their mark).

Post-Draft Update: I've added post-draft rankings for how I would value players going forward. In simple Bayesian terms, the pre-draft rankings can serve as a prior, while the post-draft rankings are the posterior, using my pre-draft rankings as a prior which are then influenced by the new information that is available (how early they were picked, what team picked them, any trades that were made involving the player).

Now, onto the rankings!

Tier 1 (~65 FV)

  1. Luka Doncic - Real Madrid (Spanish Liga ACB)
    + age (19.2)
    ++ already produced as top player in #2 league in world
    ++ potential 99th percentile bball IQ (in LeBron territory)
    + strong ballhandler for a player his size
    + potential for a strong outside shot (career 33.3% from FIBA 3, but 80.1% from FT)
    - mid-tier athleticism, limiting defensive upside

  2. Jaren Jackson Jr. - Michigan State
    ++ age as a freshman (18.7)
    ++ prototype NBA body for a big (6'10", +5 ape index, 240 lbs)
    ++ athleticism and fluidity
    ++ excellent shooter, especially given size/position (39.6% from NCAA 3, 79.7% from FT)
    + potential to score off dribble drives from outside
    - non-elite rebounder
    - high foul and turnover numbers

Tier 2 (~60 FV)

  1. Deandre Ayton - Arizona
    -- age as a freshman (19.8)
    ++ excellent size (7'0", 250 lbs, +5 ape index) and athleticism
    ++ tremendous scorer in the halfcourt
    + strong shooter for size (73.3% from FT, 34% from NCAA 3 on limited attempts)
    + good rebounder, and offers potential rim protection (2.3 blk/40) while limiting fouls (2.8 fouls/40)
    - lack of defensive instincts, combined with advanced age drop him out of the top tier

  2. Wendell Carter Jr. - Duke
    + age as a freshman (19.1)
    + strong basketball IQ and decision making, especially for a big
    + good rebounder, and rim protector (13.5 reb/40, 3.1 blk/40), helped by his +5 ape index
    + potential stretch 5 if his outside shot continues to develop (73.8% from FT, 41.3% from 3 on 46 attempts)
    - lesser athleticism than other top prospects
    - small size for a lone big

  3. Marvin Bagley III - Duke
    + age as a freshman (19.1)
    + good athleticism with a plus motor
    + highly skilled for his size, with good ball handling and a developing outside shot
    + potential to be a top offensive big, combining potential for ball handling/shooting/passing, with the fallback of a bench energy big capable of generating points regardless of offensive talent around him (think Enes Kanter)
    - poor length (+1 ape index) and strength hinder his ability to protect the rim
    - poor defensive IQ
    - could struggle as a lone big due to defensive inadequacies, limiting small ball opportunities

Tier 3 (~55 FV)

  1. Miles Bridges - Michigan State
    + age as a sophomore (20.2)
    + prototype 3-and-D player with plus frame (6'6", +3 ape index)
    + main weakness after freshman season was FT percentage (68.5%), but improved to an excellent 85.3% as a sophomore
    + can guard 1-4 of opposing players due to strength, effort, and agility
    - not especially strong with ball in his hands; below average handle, passing, decision making, shot creation

  2. Mohamed Bamba - Texas
    -- age as a freshman (20.0)
    ++ possesses 99th percentile size and length (6'11" with a +10 ape index)
    + toolkit to be an elite lob catcher and offensive rebounder
    + strong rebounder and rim protector
    - working on outside shot, but ability not yet there (68.1% from FT, 27.5% from NCAA 3 on 52.3 3PA/40)
    - will need to embrace role as a tertiary option in an offense as he is not a strong playmaker with the ball

  3. Zhaire Smith - Texas Tech
    ++ age as a freshman (18.9)
    ++ excellent explosive athleticism
    + strong motor and length (+5 ape index) allow for bigtime defensive versatilty
    + potential 3-and-D with plus basketball I
    + potential to be a top-3 player in this class given athleticism, defensive chops, and IQ
    - height (6'5") may limit his ability to guard 5s or bigger 4s
    - shot not yet reliable (71.7% from FT, only 1.5 3PA/40) and will need to develop to stay an offensive threat

  4. Kevin Huerter - Maryland
    + age as a sophomore (19.7)
    + prototype 3-and-D with plus athleticism/finishing/IQ/defensive switchability
    + strong and quick shooter (37.1% and 41.7% from NCAA 3 at a very high volume, 175 attempts in each season)
    + skilled and smart enough to be an adequate secondary ball handler and playmaker
    + main weakness after freshman season was scoring inside the arc, but greatly improved his finishing skill around the basket, as well as ability to draw fouls (1.2 FTA/40 to 3.6 FTA/40)
    - short wingspan (+1 ape index) hurts overall defensive impact

  5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Kentucky
    - age as a freshman (19.8)
    + terrific size for a point guard (6'6", +6 ape index)
    + excellent ability to get to and finish at the rim
    + strong basketball IQ, playmaking ability, and court vision (6.1 AST/40, 3.2 TOV/40)
    - not an explosive athlete, which court hurt his driving ability at the NBA level
    - limited outside shooter (1.8 3PA/40) despite strong numbers (40.4% from NCAA 3, 81.7% from FT)
    - extremely skinny, can get bullied by denser players

  6. Mikal Bridges - Villanova
    - age as a junior (21.7)
    + potential 3-and-D with good size/length/performance
    + turned himself into a strong shooter (78.7% --> 91.1% --> 85.1% from FT at decent volume; 29.9% --> 39.3% --> 43.5% from NCAA 3 at strong volume
    + good size/length (6'7", +5 ape index)
    + smart player on both ends of the floor who limits mistakes
    - overall frame (200 lbs) may hurt against more physical players
    - not a strong ball handler or playmaker
    - age questions the amount of development left

Tier 4 (~50 FV)

  1. Troy Brown - Oregon
    ++ age as a freshman (18.7)
    + potential 3-and-D with plus IQ/frame
    + good size (6'7", +3 ape index, 210 lbs) and motor allow for good defensive switchability
    + strong playmaker (4.1 AST/40) and rebounder (7.9 REB/40, 1.9 OREB/40) for a wing
    - solid free-throw shooter (74.3%), but outside shot has not yet developed (29.1% on 4.0 3PA/40)

  2. Josh Okogie - Georgia Tech
    + age as a sophomore (19.7)
    + potential 3-and-D with good length and shot
    + excellent at drawing fouls, strong shooter (74.7% --> 82.1% from FT at high volume; 38.4% --> 38.0% from NCAA 3, on good volume)
    + not tall (6'4"), but excellent length (+8 ape index), quick feet, and motor create a strong defensive profile both on and off the ball
    - not much of a ball handler or playmaker
    - height may limit defensive ability against tall wings or bigs

  3. Michael Porter Jr. - Missouri
    - age as a freshman (19.9)
    + solid size (6'10", +2 ape index, 215 lbs) for a combo forward, helps with rebounding ability
    + strong shooter for his size and good finisher around the rim
    - questionable playmaking and athleticism
    - de-valued skillset as mostly a one-dimensional scorer, features some mid-to-late career Carmelo Anthony risks
    - limited performance after getting hurt his lone NCAA season
    - big injury risk due to non-contact (potentially hereditary) back injury at young age

  4. De'Anthony Melton - USC
    + age as a sophomore (20.0)
    + strong court vision/defensive production/length/rebounding for a point guard
    + good basketball IQ on both ends of the court
    - not a dynamic athlete and needs to improve ball handling to serve as a lead guard
    - not a strong shooter (70.6% from FT, 28.4% from NCAA 3, both at middling volume)
    - did not play in 2017/18 so he has a lack of recent statistical markers

  5. Trae Young - Oklahoma
    - age as a freshman (19.6)
    + top of the class skill level (great ball handler, 86.1% from FT, 36.0% from NCAA 3 on extremely high volume) and possesses strong passing numbers
    + fallback of at least a serviceable rotational player capable of driving an offense even with a poor supporting cas
    - average basketball IQ, decision making, finishing ability at the rim
    - undersized (6'2", +0 ape index, 180 lbs)
    - substantial risk to be the worst defender in the league due to size restrictions and below average effort

Tier 5 (~45 FV)

  1. Jacob Evans - Cincinnati
    + age as a junior (20.9)
    + prototype 3-and-D with good IQ who limits mistakes
    + features a lot of potential 50-grade (average) abilities
    - below average athlete, ball handler, and ball mover; strictly a catch-and-shoot option

  2. Kevin Knox - Kentucky
    ++ age as freshman (18.8)
    + potential stretch-4 with improving shot and catch-and-drive ability
    - below average athleticism at the NBA level
    - low defensive IQ

  3. Robert Williams - Texas A&M
    + age as a sophomore (20.6)
    + good athleticism/rebounding/rim proection
    + should be capable as lone big despite height (6'9") due to wingspan (+7 ape index), athletiism, and physicality
    + strong rebounder in both NCAA seasons, and surprisingly decent ball mover
    - unimpressive defensive IQ who can take possessions off and chase blocks
    - terrible shooter (59.0% --> 47.1% from FT line), will need to improve to avoid hack-a situations

  4. Jarred Vanderbilt - Kentucky
    + age as freshman (19.2)
    + highly recruited big with plus rebounding/playmaking/defesive potential
    - injuries (which he has a history of) limited him to 14 games and 238 minutes in 2017/18
    - not much of a shooter (limited statistics, but only 24/38 from the FT line)
    - question marks surrounding defensive motor and IQ

Honorable Mentions (~40 FV) (1 bonus withdrawn player, then ordered alphabetically)

Post-Draft 2018 Rankings

Tier 1 (~65 FV)

  1. ↔ (pre-draft: 1, Tier 1) Luka Doncic - Pick 1.03, Dallas Mavericks

  2. ↔ (pre-draft: 2, Tier 1) Jaren Jackson Jr. - Pick 1.04, Memphis Grizzlies

Tier 2 (~60 FV)

  1. ↔ (pre-draft: 3, Tier 2) Deandre Ayton - Pick 1.01, Phoenix Suns

  2. ↔ (pre-draft: 4, Tier 2) Wendell Carter Jr. - Pick 1.7, Chicago Bulls

  3. ↑ (pre-draft: 8, Tier 3) Zhaire Smith - Pick 1.16, Philadelphia 76ers
    Philadelphia is a great fit for Smith. His defensive switchability and athleticism should play up in the small bursts Philly can initially allow him as he eases into the rotation.

  4. ↔ (pre-draft: 5, Tier 2) Marvin Bagley III - Pick 1.02, Sacramento Kings

  5. ↑ (pre-draft: 10, Tier 3) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Pick 1.11, Los Angeles Clippers
    This is an ideal fit for Shai, who should play well next to Patrick Beverely in a unique backcourt situation.

Tier 3 (~55 FV)

  1. ↔ (pre-draft: 6, Tier 3) Miles Bridges- Pick 1.12, Charlotte Hornets

  2. ↔ (pre-draft: 7, Tier 3) Mohamed Bamba - Pick 1.06, Orlando Magic

  3. ↔ (pre-draft: 9, Tier 3) Kevin Huerter - Pick 1.19, Atlanta Hawks

  4. ↑ (pre-draft: 19, Tier 5) Robert Williams - Pick 1.27, Boston Celtics
    Williams's main limitation is his defensive IQ, and he was drafted to the absolute best situation to fix this.

Tier 4 (~50 FV)

  1. ↓ (pre-draft: 11, Tier 3) Mikal Bridges - Pick 1.10, Phoenix Suns
    Bridges fits best as a secondary piece who shouldn't be relied upon to create much on his own and Phoenix is not a great fit for this. Plus, from a team perspective, Phoenix was in need of higher varience players with bigger upside, which Bridges is not.

  2. ↔ (pre-draft: 12, Tier 4) Troy Brown Jr. - Pick 1.15, Washington Wizards

  3. ↔ (pre-draft: 13, Tier 4) Josh Okogie - Pick 1.20, Minnesota Timberwolves

  4. ↔ (pre-draft: 14, Tier 4) Michael Porter Jr. - Pick 1.14, Denver Nuggets

  5. ↑ (pre-draft: 17, Tier 5) Jacob Evans - Pick 1.28, Golden State Warriors
    Evans should fit well with a loaded Golden State roster, where his high floor/low ceiling combination and strong ability to limit mistakes while making the simple play fits best.

  6. ↔ (pre-draft: 15, Tier 4) De'Anthony Melton - Pick 2.46, Houston Rockets

  7. ↔ (pre-draft: 16, Tier 4) Trae Young - Pick 1.05, Atlanta Hawks

Tier 5 (~45 FV)

  1. ↔ (pre-draft: 20, Tier 5) Jarred Vanderbilt - Pick 2.41, Denver Nuggets

  2. ↑ (pre-draft: HM) Lonnie Walker - Pick 1.18, San Antonio Spurs
    The best player development organization of the last 20 years drafts a player described as a, "set of tools that need molding into skills." Yes, this is a good fit.

Honorable Mentions (~40 FV)

Dropped Off







Past Rankings (all rankings are pre-draft)

I have never posted these before, but I figured I'd throw them in here, just in case anybody was curious on my rankings for previous drafts.

2017

  1. Lonzo Ball - UCLA
  2. Jonathan Isaac - Florida State
  3. Markelle Fultz - Washington
  4. Lauri Markkanen - Arizona
  5. Josh Jackson - Kansas
  6. Donovan Mitchell - Louisville
  7. Jayson Tatum - Duke
  8. Zach Collins - Gonzaga
  9. De'Aaron Fox - Kentucky
  10. John Collins - Wake Forest
  11. Harry Giles - Duke
  12. Josh Hart - Villanova
  13. Caleb Swanigan - Purdue
  14. Frank Ntilikina - SIG Basket (French Pro A League)
  15. Dennis Smith Jr. - NC State

2016

  1. Ben Simmons - LSU
  2. Dragan Bender - Maccabi Tel Aviv (Israeli Premier League)
  3. Brandon Ingram - Duke
  4. Kris Dunn - Providence
  5. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot - KK Mega Basket (Adriatic League)
  6. Jaylen Brown - California
  7. Marquese Chriss - Washington
  8. Zhou Qi - Xinjiang Flying Tigers (Chinese Basketball Association)
  9. Jamal Murray - Kentucky
  10. Deyonta Davis - Michigan State
  11. Jakob Poeltl - Utah
  12. Patrick McCaw - UNLV
  13. Denzel Valentine - Michigan State
  14. Domantas Sabonis - Gonzaga
  15. Taurean Prince - Baylor